5G

The India telecom story, so far

December 30, 2023

Every decade, a new telecom generation emerges, with 5G currently being commercialized, offering faster data rates, low latency, and enhanced reliability. 6G is characterized by TBps data rates, microsecond latency, and extensive network dependability. Operating in the THz spectrum, it extends to applications beyond connectivity, encompassing energy harvesting, sensing, and more.

India is aiming at becoming the global leader not only in 6G technology but in affordable 6G technology too – something we can export everywhere. The Prime Minister has made it his personal agenda to leave no stone unturned for the country to adopt Bharat 6G Vision. C-DoT the nodal agency for IPR management, DoT, TEC, and WPC are collaborating with the industry, T&M players, and academia, among others to make this vision a reality. India has over 230 patents, with a target to have 10 percent of all 6G patents by 2030.

India has made complete plans to play host to the World Telecommunications Standardization Assembly next year, where the technology agenda of the ITU for the next four years will be decided. The gradual introduction of 6G technology is likely to begin around 2028, with official commercialization anticipated by 2030. The standardization process, led by 3GPP, will be vital for ensuring the compatibility and adoption of this innovative technology, and it is set to commence in 2026.

Telecom gear manufacturers are upbeat on the Indian telecom story. Nokia, for instance expects to play a huge role and become a base for 6G R&D and application development in the coming years. 2024 is expected to see the monetization journey of Indian telcos kicking off, resulting in the second phase of 5G network expansion. Tarun Chhabra, VP & Mobile Networks India Head, Nokia India, expects the proliferation of fixed-wireless access (FWA) network to usher the Indian telecom sector into the second phase of 5G network deployment.

“India’s requirement is still going to be substantial in 2024-25, then our factories will be fully loaded with India plus some exports. FWA is one big thing that can actually require a lot of data thrusting and then operators will have to actually deploy more networks. I would say this is phase one. Once there is a new use case coming up, more subscribers being added, then there’s going to be more demand for network capacity, which is also going to have an impact on the second phase of 5G deployment,” says Chhabra.

The FWA technology is helping mobile operators connect new homes without laying optical fiber cable and provide high-speed broadband to homes. Use cases in ports, manufacturing, defence, and railways have the potential to provide monetization opportunity to the telcos.

In October the vendor opened a new 6G Lab in India to develop potential use cases for the new technology for industry and society. Experts working at its Bengaluru center will support India’s ambition to make notable contributions toward global 6G technology standards. Nokia is also building research collaborations with premier research institutes in the country, such as IISc/IITs, to scale up the 6G research initiative further here.

KPMG also believes in the tremendous strides the country has made in developing its ICT capabilities and infrastructure. It estimates that 5G/6G, sitcom, and semiconductor technologies will collectively contribute approximately Rs 20 lakh crore to the nation’s economy in the next five years, with an estimated contribution of ~1.6 percent to the GDP by FY28. The development and impact on the telecom sector are at the core of this remarkable journey.

Currently valued at Rs 3 lakh crore, and anticipated to grow at a CAGR of nearly 7–9 percent by FY24, India’s telecommunication market is the second-largest of the world. Not only has the service revenue increased over the years, progressive and investor friendly policies have enabled India to be the epicenter of global telecom manufacturing ecosystem. The country has rapidly emerged as a global innovation hub, driven by strengths across 5G networks, enterprise digital transformation, and a vibrant startup ecosystem supported by government policies, among others.

India had the fastest 5G rollout in the world. Within six months of its launch, India achieved 20 million 5G connections, covering over 700 districts. By TRAI’s estimates, the two telcos RJio and Bharti Airtel surpassed their three-year targets for network rollout within six months. Both of them are expected to offer 5G across the whole of India within the next six months. Vodafone Idea and BSNL are expected to join the fold.

With over 397,000 5G BTS sites established in more than 738 districts until November, India has risen to become a global 5G leader. Boasting 1.148 billion wireless subscribers as of August, the industry has witnessed a 1.9-percent growth from the previous year, with the average data usage per subscriber soaring to 17.4 GB per month.

Just a year after the launching of the 5G network in the country, India’s 5G speed made it to the top 10 global list. As per the Speedtest.net site Ookla, India is not only one of the top 5G performing countries in 2023, but has also beaten nations like the UK and Japan. With its median 5G download speed of 312.26 Mbps, India has climbed 72 places on the Speedtest Global Index between September 2022 and August 2023.

Furthermore, contributing to the expansion of India’s telecommunication market is the projection that the country is poised to emerge as the world’s second-largest smartphone market by 2025, as per GSMA. Nearly 31 million users in India are expected to upgrade to 5G phones in 2023. 5G users in India spend two hours more per week on average using apps or services, such as streaming HD video, video calling services, mobile gaming, and augmented reality, compared to users in other early adopter 5G markets, such as the US, United Kingdom, South Korea, China, and many others.

India’s smartphone manufacturing stands at Rs 3.65 lakh crore with an impressive 99.2 percent of its demand met by handsets manufactured in India. This is not restricted to manufacturing smartphones. India has shifted its focus from being an import-intensive economy to securing self-reliance in manufacturing, specifically for telecom equipment. This is supported by the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme worth Rs 12,195 crore, which resulted in 31 companies signing up for additional manufacturing commitment in the telecom equipment space. The Indian telecom sector has attracted Rs 73,704 crore FDI inflow in the last five years. This is expected to further stimulate local manufacturing, create millions of jobs, make a substantial contribution to the GDP, and secure a significant share in the global supply chain ecosystem.

“Given the rapid 5G adoption in India, the growing data traffic, and the launch of fixed wireless access or FWA offers by service providers, we expect mmWave to be the foundation for the next wave of 5G growth the country,” said Nitin Bansal, head of Ericsson India and Head of Network Solutions, South-east Asia, Oceania, and India.

As India asserts its global leadership in 5G, the telecom industry anticipates a dynamic evolution of use cases.