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Telecom Q2FY19 Review: ARPU Down-Trading Continues To Hurt Industry Revenues
However, Jio saw only a marginal reduction in ARPU, reporting an ARPU of Rs132 (down 2% qoq). Continued shrinking in ARPU has resulted in significant margin pressure.
Jio’s Monsoon Hungama offer led to net additions of 37mn subscribers for the operator in Q2FY19. These additions for Jio put pressure on Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel, which saw 13mn and 6.6mn deletions, respectively.
Both Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel also saw a sharp rise in leverage due to shrinkage in EBITDA margins. Net debt/equity for Vodafone Idea and Bharti Airtel stood at 1.62x (against 1.8x in Q1FY19) and 1.64x (against 1.48x in Q1FY19), respectively.
We see ARPU pressure decreasing over the medium term. However, ARPU down-trading is likely to remain a drag on earnings for incumbent operators over the next few quarters.
Our top pick is Bharti Airtel.
Bharti Airtel
Q2FY19 | Q2FY18 | YoY (%) | Q1FY19 | QoQ (%) | |
Sales | 20,423 | 21,777 | -6.2 | 20,080 | 1.7 |
EBITDA | 6,313 | 7,977 | -20.9 | 6,826 | -7.5 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 30.9 | 36.6 | -572bps | 34.0 | -308bps |
PAT | 58.6 | 94.7 | -38.1 | 117.5 | -50.1 |
Bharti Infratel
Q2FY19 | Q2FY18 | YoY (%) | Q1FY19 | QoQ (%) | |
Sales | 3,668 | 3,648 | 0.5 | 3,674 | -0.2 |
EBITDA | 1,506 | 1,634 | -7.8 | 1,521 | -1.0 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 41.1 | 44.8 | -373bps | 41.4 | -34bps |
PAT | 600 | 638 | -6.0 | 638 | -6.0 |
Vodafone Idea
Q2FY19 | Q2FY18 | YoY (%) | Q1FY19 | QoQ (%) | |
Sales | 7,664 | 7,465.5 | 2.7 | 5,889.2 | 30.1 |
EBITDA | 461 | 1,501.6 | -69.3 | 659.5 | -30.0 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 6.0 | 20.1 | -1,409bps | 11.2 | -518bps |
PAT | -4,608.5 | -1,106.6 | NA | -1,915.9 | NA |
Q2FY19 | Q2FY18 | YoY (%) | Q1FY19 | QoQ (%) | |
Sales | 4,068.2 | 4,247.4 | -4.2 | 3,943.8 | 3.2 |
EBITDA | 630.2 | 594.3 | 6.0 | 586.8 | 7.4 |
EBITDA margin (%) | 15.5 | 14.0 | 150bps | 14.9 | 61bps |
PAT | 1.7 | 586.8 | -99.7 | -58.5 | -102.8 |
During its AGM, the management of Reliance Industries announced a new scheme regarding the Jiophone. Under the “monsoon Hungama” offer, Reliance Jio would be offering the Jiophone at an effective price of Rs501 for a limited time period. This offer is likely to be a strong driver of subscriber additions given that it is an improvement on the already popular Jiophone.
In Q1FY19, Jio saw its subscriber base grow by ~29mn users, as subscribers (mostly from rural areas) flocked towards the Jiophone. We estimate that due to the Monsoon Hungama offer, Jio added ~242mn subscribers (up 12.4% qoq) to its subscriber base. We expect Vodafone and Idea to lose 2.8% and 3.5% of their subscriber base over Q2FY19E, while Bharti Airtel would be largely neutral on a net basis. However, Bharti Airtel is likely to see migration of low-ARPU Telenor subscribers to Jio. – indiainfoline
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