Six RAN takeaways from Ericsson’s Mobility Report

Ericsson’s Mobility Report provides a comprehensive overview of the end-user trends shaping the RAN market. The report is loaded with data and insights. Below are six takeaways we are keeping in mind at Dell’Oro Group as we update our 5-year RAN forecast.

22% mobile traffic growth in 1Q26
Mobile traffic growth continues to moderate. Given concerns that traffic growth could decelerate more quickly than expected, it is encouraging that total mobile network traffic has now posted seven consecutive quarters of stable year-over-year growth in the 20% to 22% range. While growth rates are no longer at the elevated levels seen in the early days of 5G, traffic demand is growing and continues to support long-term RAN capacity investments.

Total traffic to grow 2.5x by 2030
Ericsson projects total mobile network traffic (mobile broadband and FWA) to increase by approximately 2.5x between 2025 and 2030, implying roughly 20% annual growth. This outlook influences not only the timing of 6G deployments but also the level of capacity investments during the second half of the 5G cycle. Even as the industry is trying to pivot towards network differentiation and the Uplink (UL), the relationship with RAN revenue and the overall mobile traffic growth is expected to improve, especially as the industry is now in somewhat uncharted territories when it comes to the supply/demand of mobile connectivity.

UL 10% to 12% of total traffic
For years, suppliers have emphasized the importance of improving UL performance. First, it was short-form video, and now AI-driven applications are expected to further increase UL demand. Even so, our interpretation of Ericsson’s medium- and high-UL scenarios is that UL traffic will still account for only about 10% to 12% of total mobile network traffic by 2031, up from roughly 8% today. AI may significantly reshape traffic patterns, but Downlink (DL) traffic will continue to dominate overall network demand.

10 M smart glasses in 2025
The projected growth in mobile traffic continues to be overwhelmingly driven by smartphones. Although expectations are rising that smart glasses could become the next major connected device category, Ericsson estimates shipments reached approximately 10 million units in 2025—roughly 1% of smartphone shipments. The figure is an important reminder that while the long-term opportunity is compelling, adoption remains in its early stages, and the base case is that smartphones will continue to dominate mobile traffic for the foreseeable future.

Satellite accounts for 2% of fixed connections
Even as Starlink and other satellite providers continue to expand their ambitions across home broadband, enterprise networking, and mobile connectivity, Ericsson projects satellite broadband will account for about 2% of global fixed broadband connections by 2031. In comparison, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is expected to represent approximately 17% of fixed broadband connections, reinforcing that terrestrial wireless technologies remain the much larger opportunity.

80% of enterprises are growing their mobile investments
Private wireless increased 16% and accounted for 3 to 5% of total RAN revenue in 2025. To date, the primary driver has been industrial 4G and 5G deployments supporting applications where Wi-Fi or public cellular networks cannot meet performance, coverage, or mobility requirements. Looking ahead, Ericsson’s survey of more than 100 enterprise decision makers across North America, Europe, and Asia suggests that 80% plan to increase their mobile investments, in part to help scale AI initiatives. While private wireless remains a relatively small portion of the RAN market today, enterprise demand continues to strengthen.

In other words, AI continues to dominate industry discussions; however, the latest Ericsson Mobility Report reinforces that the RAN market over the next five years will still be driven primarily by steady traffic growth, smartphones, FWA, and enterprise investment. AI is expected to increase UL requirements and create new network demands, but the fundamental traffic drivers remain largely unchanged. Dell’Oro