Mobile core market stagnant due to lack of 5G standalone deployments

According to a newly published forecast report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, security, networks, and data center industries, the Mobile Core Network (MCN) market growth rate has been reduced to less than a 1 percent CAGR (2023-2028). Growth will be led in the MCN market by the Multi-access Edge Computing (MEC) market segment and the 5G MCN market segment.

“This is the fourth consecutive time we reduced the growth rate of the MCN market as the build-out of 5G Standalone (5G SA) networks continues to wane compared to 5G Non-standalone (5G NSA) networks,” said Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “The buildout of 5G SA networks is going slower than anticipated which is restraining growth in the marketplace. To date, we count fifty 5G SA eMBB networks that have been commercially deployed worldwide by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). We counted 18 new 5G SA networks in 2022, but only 12 were launched in 2023. On a positive note, we believe a lot of work has been done in the background, preparing for 5G SA launches by Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) and we expect 2024 to have more launches than 2022.

“The MEC market segment will lead the charge for growth rates in the MCN market with an expected 26 percent CAGR (2023-2028), followed by the 5G MCN market segment at a 7 percent CAGR. In 2028, we project about 75 percent of 5G subscribers will be on 5G SA networks. Additionally, about 60 percent of 4G subscribers are expected to be on converged 5G Cores in 5G SA networks. The market anticipates that the growth of the MEC market will be energized by the introduction of RedCap NR (reduced capability new radio) equipped IoT devices, bringing more 5G IoT devices to the market at lower price points. 5G Advanced (3GPP Release 18) was recently approved and we expect minimal impact on the 5G MCN market segment, except in China during the forecast period,” Bolan added.

Additional highlights from the Mobile Core Network & Multi-Access Edge Computing 5-Year January 2024 Forecast Report:

• The 4G MCN market segment is expected to have a -16 percent CAGR.
• The IMS Core market segment is expected to have a 1 percent CAGR.
• The APAC, excluding China, region is expected to have a 4 percent CAGR, followed by Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) with a 3 percent CAGR.

Dell’Oro