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Subscriber watch: Bharti’s churn still under control

April 04, 2023

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its data on subscribers (subs) for Jan’23. Industry-wide active sub base rose by 3.9mn MoM (vs rise of 8.6mn in Dec’22 and rise of 0.6mn average in past six months) with Bharti Airtel (Bharti) adding 1.3mn subs (vs 1.3mn in past six months). Reliance Jio’s (RJio) active subs rose by 3.5mn in Jan’23 (vs +1.3mn in past six months). VIL saw its active subs decline falling by 0.5mn. Industry-wide mobile broadband (MBB) sub net add was 6.2mn (vs increase of 4.6mn in past six months). Bharti’s MBB subs rose 2.8mn and its market share expanded to 29.9% (up 5bps MoM) on active basis, while RJio’s dipped 8bps to 51.0%. MNP remains elevated at 12.4mn with churn rate at 1.1%. Bharti’s active subs addition has not decelerated despite rise in minimum recharge from Rs99 to Rs155, probably due to the delayed impacted from recharge cycle; we expect churn to rise (though trend remains favourable for Bharti) in coming months.

Industry-wide active sub base rose by 3.9mn MoM in Jan’23

Industry-wide active sub base rose by 3.9mn to 1,025mn (up 0.4% MoM, +1.8% YoY).
RJio’s active sub base jumped 3.5mn (average +1.3mn in past six months) to 394mn in Jan’23. Total subs rose by 1.7mn to 426mn, and active subs as a percentage of total subs improved to 92.6%, up 46bps MoM.
Bharti’s active sub base rose 1.3mn (vs +1.3mn in past six months) to 366mn. Its total sub base increased by 1.3mn. Bharti has increased its minimum tariff from Rs99 to Rs155 in multiple circles.
VIL’s active subs dipped 0.5mn (down by an average of 1.5mn per month in the past six months) to 209mn in Jan’23. Total subs reduced by 1.4mn.
RJio’s active sub market share rose 20bps MoM to 38.5%; Bharti’s stood at 35.7% (flattish MoM) while VIL’s fell 12bps MoM to 20.4%.

Industry-wide MBB (mobile broadband) subs rose 6.2mn

Industry-wide MBB subs stood at 805mn, up 6.2mn, in Jan’23 (up 0.8% MoM / 6.5% YoY) vs past six months’ average net add of 4.6mn MBB subs.
Bharti’s MBB sub base grew 2.8mn to 232mn, which will aid premiumisation, benefited from rural expansion. It will help sustain decent ARPU growth in the absence of tariff hike.
RJio’s MBB sub base rose 1.7mn to 426mn. Adjusted for inactive subs, its MBB market share stood at 51.0% (down 8bps MoM). Bharti’s MBB market share was 29.9% (up 5bps MoM) and VIL’s was 16.2% (down 2bps MoM).
VIL’s MBB sub base rose 1.1mn in Jan’23 to 125mn; it underperformed peers.

Wired broadband sub net add dip for RJio, stable for Bharti

Wired broadband sub base rose 0.76mn MoM to 33.1mn (up 2.3% MoM / 24.2% YoY) in Jan’23. Bharti added 0.14mn subs (vs 0.14mn per month in past six months), and RJio added 0.19mn (vs 0.25mn per month in past six months). Other operators’ sub base rose 0.36mn to 14.1mn.
RJio’s market share rose to 23.7% (up 3bps MoM) and that for Bharti increased to 17.7% (up 2bps MoM). BSNL’s sub base expanded by 0.07mn and its market share dipped 8bps MoM to 12.6%.

Industry-wide MNP churn flattish at 1.1%, but elevated