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Smart growth in Bharti’s AGR market share, ICICI Securities

Industry AGR (incl. NLD) in Q2FY23 grew 1.6% QoQ / 16.4% YoY to Rs543bn. Bharti Airtel (Bharti) made an 83bps QoQ gain in AGR market share to 36.3% adding more incremental AGR QoQ (Rs7.6bn) vs RJio (Rs6.6bn). RJio had strong subscriber addition, but revenue growth translation was lower during the quarter. Bharti has grown faster in metros and A’ circles too vs RJio probably on higher postpaid subscriber addition, and better monetisation of data usage. VIL’s AGR market share fell 20bps to 17.5% on underperformance in leadership circles, while it has done relatively well in established circles. Bharti’s market share on GR basis is same as RJio’s at 38.1% (RJio’s GR market share has been stable at 38% for past five quarters).

  • Industry AGR (incl. NLD) rose 1.6% QoQ / 16.4% YoY to Rs543bn. Top-3 operators’ combined AGR (incl. NLD) rose 2.9% QoQ / 17.2% YoY. The benefit of premiumisation has been limited while subscriber growth has returned post SIM consolidation. Q2FY23 annualised revenue stood at Rs2,170bn, and AGR (incl. NLD) was Rs1,902bn for FY22. Industry gross revenue was up 3.1% QoQ (21.1% YoY) to Rs616bn.
  • Bharti’s AGR (incl. NLD) increased 4.0% QoQ / 17.7% YoY to Rs197bn. Bharti’s AGR (incl. NLD) market share rose to 36.3%, up 83bps QoQ / 41bps YoY. Its incremental AGR QoQ was Rs7.6bn vs Rs6.6bn for RJio. This was despite significant subscriber addition by RJio (Bharti benefited from better data monetisation). The circle-wise analysis shows Bharti has grown significantly faster in metros (10% QoQ) and A’ circles (+5.7%) while B’ and C’ circles have grown slower at 2.6% and 2% QoQ respectively. The circles that have under-performed are: UP east (down 3.6% QoQ), Bihar (down 1.1%), UP west (+2.7), and MP (2%). Bharti’s GR-based market share of 38% is equal to RJio’s while there is a gap of 510bps between their AGR market shares (in favour of RJio).
  • VIL’s AGR (incl. NLD) market share fell to 17.5% (down 20bps QoQ). VIL’s AGR (incl. NLD) rose 0.5% QoQ / 9.7% YoY to Rs95bn. Growth in leadership circles was slower at 0.9% QoQ due to dip in QoQ revenue in UP east (down 11.2%), MP (down 3.6%) and Maharashtra (down 0.6%). Growth in established circles was relatively faster at 3.2% QoQ while that in others increased by 2.9%.
  • RJio’s AGR (incl. NLD) rose 3.0% QoQ / 20.1% YoY to Rs225bn. RJio’s AGR (incl. NLD) market share was 41.4%, up 56bps QoQ. AGR growth has been relatively higher in metros at 3.3% QoQ and A’ circles at 4.4% QoQ; however, they have grown significantly slower compared to Bharti in the same circles. B / C’ circles AGR rose at 2.3% / 2.6%, respectively. In circle-wise analysis, RJio lost market share in eight circles and under-performed in a few circles, viz. Delhi (+2.1% QoQ), TN (+1.9), Rajasthan (+1.7%) and MP (+1.4%). Finally, RJio has shown significant pick-up in AGR in Karnataka Circle (critical for Bharti), up 10.4% QoQ / 36.9% YoY. RJio’s market share based on GR has been close to 38% for past five quarters, while Bharti has gained under the same parameter.

For report,

CT Bureau

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