RJio’s active subs base jumps again, ICICI Securities

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its monthly data on subscribers (subs) for Feb’22. Industry-active sub base grew 9.5mn MoM with Bharti Airtel’s (Bharti) net add at 1.2mn. The positive surprise was Reliance Jio (RJio) with active subs net add of 10.1mn despite total sub-base dip of 3.7mn in Feb’22. Unlike previously, RJio subs net add has not been impacted by SIM consolidation from Dec’21 tariff hike. VIL saw active sub decline by 2.9mn. Industry-wide mobile broadband (MBB) subs remained flattish. Bharti’s MBB sub market share dipped 23bps to 28.5% on active basis, while RJio’s rose 41bps to 51.8%. MNP was stable at 9.2mn with churn rate at 0.8% (vs 0.8% in Jan’22). Wired broadband sub add was stable for RJio at 0.21mn and for Bharti at 0.10mn.

Industry-active sub-base rose 9.5mn
Industry-active sub base rose 9.5mn to 1,016mn (0.9% MoM and 3.5% YoY), and benefited from rise in active subs base for RJio.

RJio’s active sub base grew 10.1mn (average 3.7mn in past six month) to 379mn in Feb’22 which looks stronger than expected. Total subs dipped 3.7mn, while VLR ratio improved to 94% (from 90.7% in Jan’22).

Bharti’s active sub base improved 1.2mn to 351mn. Its total sub base increased 1.6mn which means existing subs base was stable despite tariff hike.

VIL’s active subs dipped 2.9mn (0.7mn in Jan’22) to 226mn in Feb’22. Total subs reduced by 1.5mn.

RJio’s active sub market share improved by 65bps to 37.3% MoM, while Bharti’s stood at 34.6% (down 21bps MoM) and VIL’s fell 50bps MoM to 22.2%. RJio continues to lead in active sub market share.

Industry MBB (mobile broadband) subs is flattish
Industry-wide MBB subs remained unchanged at 756mn in Feb’22 due to subs clean-up by RJio. Bharti’s MBB subs base rose 2.3mn in this category which has shown some improvement but far below earlier run rate.

RJio’s MBB sub base dipped by 3.7mn to 403mn. Adjusted for inactive subs, its MBB market share stood at 51.8% (up 41bps MoM), while Bharti’s was 28.5% (down 23bps MoM) and VIL’s 16.7% (down 20bps MoM).

VIL’s MBB sub base rose 0.9mn to 122mn, which is disappointing.

Wired broadband sub net add steady for Bharti / RJio
Wired broadband sub base remained constant MoM to 26.6mn (up 19.6% YoY) in Feb’22. Net add for Bharti was 0.10mn (vs 0.13mn in past six month). Others dipped by 0.24mn subs to 12.3mn.

RJio’s market share rose to 18.9% (+80bps MoM), and net add stood at 0.21mn (vs 0.23mn in past six month). Bharti’s market share was 16.6% (+39bps MoM). BSNL lost 0.09mn subs and its market share was down 33bps MoM to 14.3%.

Industry MNP churn rate stable at 0.8%
Industry porting was 9.2mn in Feb’22. MNP churn rate was 0.8% (vs 0.8% in Jan’22).

Active subs: Industry sub net add at 9.5mn
Active subscribers, or visitor location register (VLR), is a temporary database of subs who have roamed in a particular area that an operator serves. Each BTS is served by exactly one VLR, hence, the unique registration. The VLR data is calculated on the basis of active subs in VLR on the date of peak VLR of a particular month for which the data is being collected. This data is collected from switches having a purge time of not more than 72 hours.

For the detailed report, click here – https://www.communicationstoday.co.in/telecom-subscriber-watch-rjios-active-subs-base-jumps-again-icici-securities/

CT Bureau