Jump in RJio sub addition on aggressive offer on JioPhone, ICICI Securities

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its monthly data on subscribers (subs) for Mar’21. Industry-active subs rose 12mn with Bharti Airtel (Bharti) net add at 4.8mn subs; Reliance Jio (RJio) gained 7.3mn subs after aggressive offer on JioPhone, but it is unlikely to sustain, in our view, as most subs are coming as second SIM. Mobile broadband (MBB) subs addition stood at 12.5mn with steady addition for Bharti at 3.6mn. Bharti’s MBB subs market share rose 4bps to 28.5% on active basis, while RJio’s improved 21bps to 50.0%. MNP has remained elevated in the past two months, and we suspect Bharti is gaining from it. Wired broad subs addition has been strong for RJio and Bharti at 0.17mn and 0.1mn.

Industry-active subs rose 12mn led by RJio on rollout of aggressive offer on JioPhone

• Industry-active subs base expanded 12mn to 994mn (up 1.2% MoM; and 0.5% YoY), which was helped by strong total subs addition of 13.2mn or 1.1% MoM.
• RJio’s active sub rose 7.3mn to 332mn in Mar’21. RJio had seen active subs dip in past two months; sudden jump was on account of aggressive long validity offer on JioPhone; thus, we don’t think the net add will be sustaining. Moreover, we have not seen the new offer helping RJio to grow active subs portion, which was up only 27bps to 78.4%.
• Bharti’s active subs rose 4.8mn to 344mn, most of which was driven by total subs net add, thus, indicating the improving quality of subs addition. Bharti has maintained net add despite aggression from RJio, which is good execution.
• VIL’s active subs declined 0.4mn (vs average 1.4mn in the past 6 months), resulting in an active subs base of 256mn in Mar’21. Total subs base has started growing with net add of 1.1mn, second month in a row.
• RJio’s active subs market share improved 34bps to 33.4% MoM, while Bharti’s stood at 34.6% (up 7bps MoM) and VIL’s dipped 35bps MoM to 25.7%. Bharti has maintained good lead in active subs market share against RJio.

Industry MBB (mobile broadband) subs rose 12.5mn led by strong growth for RJio

• Industry-wide MBB subs rose 12.5mn to 755mn in Mar’21. The growth was led by continued strong net add for Bharti at 3.6mn (12.6mn addition from Jan and Mar’21).
• RJio’s MBB subs base grew 7.9mn to 423mn. Adjusted for inactive subs, its MBB market share stood at 50.0% (up 21bps MoM), while Bharti’s was 28.5% (up 4bps MoM) and VIL’s 18.6% (down 29bps MoM).
• VIL’s MBB subs rose 0.3mn, which continues to remain slow paced, to 124mn.

RJio’s wired broadband subs was steady at 0.17mn to 2.6mn

• Wired broadband subs was up 0.49mn MoM to 22.8mn (up 2.2% MoM and 18.6% YoY growth) in Mar’21.
• RJio’s market share improved to 11.4% (up 99bps MoM), and net add stood at 0.17mn. Bharti’s net add was up at 0.10mn, and market share improved to 13.6% (up 15bps MoM). Others (local service providers) net add was 0.22mn in Mar’21.

Industry MNP churn rate rose to 1.1%

• Industry porting rose to 12.7mn, up 53.7% MoM in Mar’21. MNP churn rate rose to 1.1% (vs 0.6% previously).

Active subs: Industry adds 12.0mn subs

Active subscribers or visitor location register (VLR) is a temporary database of subs who have roamed in a particular area that an operator serves. Each BTS is served by exactly one VLR, hence, the unique registration. The VLR data is calculated on the basis of active subs in VLR on the date of peak VLR of a particular month for which the data is being collected. This data is collected from switches having a purge time of not more than 72 hours.

Mobile broadband subscribers: Industry net add was 12.5mn

CT Bureau