Forget 5G for a moment, instead imagine 6G

Indeed it is. But the rollout of a global telecommunications standard isn’t the work of a day, so some people are already thinking about what the sixth generation of wireless technology will look like. They are envisioning speeds 10 times greater than the fifth generation now beginning to reach consumers, and more bandwidth to handle new data-hogging devices including autonomous cars and unmanned factory equipment.

“With 5G, the things you can do that are beyond 4G are enormous, but 5G still doesn’t quite reach the level that we want to be at,” says Yoshihiro Katagiri, a planning director at Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, which is in charge of telecommunications.

The International Telecommunication Union, a United Nations agency that coordinates global wireless standards, set up an initiative in 2018 to identify and research the post-5G technologies that are expected to emerge in 2030 and beyond. From Japan to South Korea, China, Finland and the U.S., countries are already vying to get their preferences on the list.

So, what kind of technological advances are we talking about?

For one, 6G will allow a much greater fulfillment of the potential of autonomous vehicles than 5G can. A more-familiar application—movie downloads—illustrates why that’s the case.

With 5G, the maximum data-transfer speed is about 10 gigabits per second, so a two-hour high-definition movie could be downloaded in three seconds. “6G will allow that movie to be downloaded instantly,” says Yuzo Aramaki, a spokesman for Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. NTT is the parent of Japan’s top mobile-phone provider, NTT Docomo, which is aiming for 6G speeds topping 100 gigabits per second.

Saving three seconds on a movie download is a marginal benefit, but every second is crucial for autonomous vehicles. To coordinate traffic involving multiple self-driving cars, live footage from the vehicles needs to be sent to remote computers for analysis before instructions can be relayed back. With 5G, the minimum time required for this back-and-forth is about seven seconds, says Mr. Aramaki, which is too slow to support the widespread use of autonomous vehicles—too much can go wrong on a crowded road in seven seconds.

With 6G, the back-and-forth can happen with no delay, he says.

Futurists also are imagining a world where robots, manipulated remotely by doctors, perform surgery on patients without any potentially dangerous lag time. In the business world, meetings could be attended by high-resolution holograms mimicking in real time the movements of people working remotely. In factories, 6G will provide the bandwidth and speed needed to support far more production by unmanned, cloud-connected machines.

Hurdles to clear

All this will require overcoming plenty of technical challenges, as the messy rollout of 5G in the U.S. is highlighting.

To achieve faster network speeds, telecom providers often seek to use high frequencies in the millimeter-wave spectrum—generally 24 gigahertz or higher. Those frequencies struggle to carry data over long distances and through physical obstacles. While 5G is expected to reach frequencies of around 30 gigahertz to 50 gigahertz in Japan, NTT Docomo expects 6G to be carried on frequencies exceeding 100 gigahertz.

Already the higher frequencies used in 5G have led to service-quality problems and slow rollouts during 5G’s initial stages. One problem is that those frequencies require more base stations—the sites that act as common connection points for local wireless networks—which can provoke opposition from communities and building owners.

Transmitting more data at faster speeds also requires extra energy. Phones with 5G service have been known to overheat and drop service back to 4G in the U.S. These issues will likely be amplified with the even speedier and higher-capacity 6G.

“Right now as the world transfers from 4G to 5G, we are looking closely at the technological issues that come up so that we prepare for them in advance next time,” says Mr. Katagiri, the Japanese official in charge of 6G planning.

Angling for business

Companies that make base stations, transmitters and the like want to make sure their technology is included in the next standard. They include the companies already at the core of 5G, such as the U.S.’s Qualcomm Inc., which stands on top with 11.4% of the global share of essential 5G patents. It is followed by China’s Huawei Technologies Co., with 11.1%, and South Korea’s Samsung Electronics Co. with 9.2%, according to telecommunications consulting firm Cyber Creative Institute Co.

Governments are lending varying degrees of support. Finland’s government, for instance, in collaboration with Nokia Corp., has put €251 million ($271 million) into a flagship program dedicated to developing fundamental 6G technologies.

The U.S. has yet to establish a similar public-private partnership, but President Trump expressed interest in 6G in a tweet from last year. “I want 5G, and even 6G, technology in the United States as soon as possible,” he wrote, adding: “American companies must step up their efforts, or get left behind.”

If all goes to plan, it will take about a decade for 6G to be ready for consumers. So mark your calendar for a Journal Report on 6G around 2030—and a preview of 7G.

―The Wall Street Journal