Where are we headed with 6G?

6G systems are expected to be commercially launched by 2030, while the first phase of standardization will likely start from 2025, leading to the first 6G specification in 3GPP Release 21 by 2028.

There is an initial vision that terahertz communication, joint communication and sensing (JCAS), artificial intelligence and machine learning, reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RIS), and photonics/visible light communication (VLC) would be among those technologies that will provide revolutionary aspects in the 6G era.

A unified global harmonized standard is required for 6G – a standard for future 6G systems to enable economies of scale and lower costs for end-users. The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) plans to finish the initial 6G standardization process “no later than the year 2030,” according to an official draft 6G framework. The ITU-R study group in charge of the document reached an agreement in June 2023, and now awaits adoption at the end of September. The pillars of the draft recommendation closely align with the NGA’s six audacious goals, namely, trust, security and resilience; digital world experiences; cost-efficient solutions; distributed cloud and communications systems; AI-native wireless solutions; and sustainability.

“From March 2021 to June 2023, there were numerous adversities and challenges in getting to the final version of the 6G vision,” Hyoung Jin Choi, the group chair, said in a social media post. “As 6G Vision Chair, I am happy to be able to share this honor with all of you. Also, I am happy to have been able to breathe with you over the past two years,” he added.

According to the timeline recommended by the study group, 6G spectrum might be identified at the World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC) 23 and WRC-27. The document points out that deployments could happen before 2030 in some countries, including trial systems. This may well be a nod to assertions from countries, such as South Korea, that they plan to deploy 6G systems in 2028.

Several countries and associations contributed over the past two years of discussions. They include IAFI (India’s body for ITU engagement), the High-Altitude Platform Station (HAPS) Alliance, the Wireless World Research Forum (WWRF), and others.

However, there is a risk that the next mobile internet standard, 6G, will not be one that spans the world. The United States is aiming to shape the development of 6G telecom technology at an early stage of research and development, and to avoid letting China build up an early lead in next-generation telecommunications.

In the US wireless technology industry, there are growing worries that Huawei and other big Chinese technology companies are beginning to dominate the standards-setting process. That puts Chinese companies in a position to more directly control the creation of an eventual 6G standard – and for them to profit from the licensing of 6G intellectual property. It is taking all measures needed to avoid a repeat of the 5G experience, when Huawei and ZTE cornered a large share of the global market. Pressure on Europe to clarify its position will intensify as the proposed deadline for 6G standards approaches, around 2025.

Failure to agree on a joint standard would bring internet decoupling to a new phase. Global markets for digital hardware have already fragmented, with China and the West creating de facto barriers for each other’s vendors in their home markets. National security concerns for governments have grown with the increasing ubiquity of the mobile internet and the China-US tech rivalry. Markets look set to become even more divided – between those dominated by Huawei and those in which Chinese vendors will not be considered for core functions.

In such an increasingly fragmented commercial world, the incentives to find agreement on joint standards will gradually fade. At worst, consumers might ultimately need different smartphones for different parts of the world – and companies different devices for the nascent Internet of Things (IoT). None of the IoT-devices designed for use in the US or the EU would work if plugged into a similar network that follows, say, a Chinese standard. The result would be the costly purchase of new devices or tricky modifications and workarounds.

Like the standards before it, 6G is an umbrella term for a host of technologies. To serve faster and more precisely, 6G will use more radio frequency bandwidth, require specialized computer chips, and employ artificial intelligence. This will increase the complexity of ensuring network security. Roadmaps envision the new network to be deeply integrated with cloud services and hooked up to non-terrestrial entities, including aircrafts, drones, and satellites. The goal is to enable features like sensing, scanning, and precise positioning – and the potential for new forms of government surveillance is already a cause for concern.

That is part of what is driving the Next G Alliance. A private sector-led group that includes major US and Canadian operators and academia and international Tier-I infrastructure vendors as members, but no Chinese companies, flags that the US has unique needs and the group, in alignment with the US government, aims to influence the development of technology. The association seeks to help American companies develop domestic wireless technologies that might eventually be submitted into global standards-setting organizations like the 3GPP and ETSI as they will have the final say in any 6G standard.

Paradoxically, top Next G Alliance members continue to hope for a unified, global 6G standard like there is with 5G today. But they acknowledge that increased stress on the relationship between the US and China could lead to the development of two 6G standards, one for the US and its allies and a separate one for China and its allies. And as things currently stand, there seems to be little prospect of cooperation over 6G between the respective spheres of influence of the two superpowers.

China’s official stand is, “The US Next G Alliance excludes Chinese companies from participating, which is rather unfortunate. It is of the utmost importance that we all continue pursuing jointly with the global ecosystem so that a unified 6G standard will be created, similar to what was accomplished globally for 5G.”

John Strand, chief executive at Strand Consult, thinks no region will have legitimate claim to 6G leadership. He argues it will be the multinationals which secure patents that will be the true 6G winners. “Standards created in 3GPP are not created in North America, Europe, or Asia,” says Strand. “When it comes to that type of work, there is no country that is the leader. Standards work is driven by companies.”

The Chinese telcos are going ahead full throttle with 6G. While China Unicom expects to start trialing 6G applications as soon as 2025, the other two large telcos too are not standing still when it comes to technology, particularly with 6G on the horizon. The telcos showcased their early technological muscle in 6G, at the 2023 Mobile World Congress Shanghai. China has established the IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group, a flagship platform promoting 6G and international cooperation.

China is not alone in wanting to be in the vanguard of 6G development. After Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in March 2023, China and Russia both proclaimed they will be leaders in 6G. South Korea is gunning to launch 6G as early as 2028. The UK and the European Union have not been shy about voicing their 6G leadership ambitions.

Narendra Modi, India’s prime minister, recently launched Bharat 6G Vision, a 6G roadmap for the sub-continent. The target to launch 6G services by 2030 has been set, and India has also launched a 6G R&D testbed, amongst other initiatives designed to assist with India’s digital transformation. Very soon the country will set up 100 new 5G labs to help in developing 5G applications, and to ensure that India’s 5G standards are part of global 5G rollouts and will work with the ITU on the standardization of future technologies.

It is keen to push forward the development of homegrown 6G technologies in India and to facilitate market access for the resulting products and services. “These efforts shall promote technology ownership and indigenous manufacturing, create a culture of technology co-innovation, reduce imports, boost export opportunities, and augment creation of intellectual property,” the government said in a statement.

But the reality of the situation is that levels of development vary wildly between operators and economic groups. While Vodafone Idea is yet to launch 5G in India, Reliance Jio is seeking to shift as many of India’s 2G users as possible with attractive 4G terms. In any case, Bharat 6G Vision documents are much the same as those put forward by other global industry and standards bodies.

Shifting gears, the players on their part are in no hurry. Consensus is that 6G technology could arrive even before the 5G ecosystem is fully ready or, at least, understood. The telcos are not ready to make another huge investment splurge. They are keen to make sure the industry monetizes 5G before rushing to 6G. In any case, they are of the view that 6G, with its ability to detect passive IoT devices as well as AI for network management, will not necessarily entail a multi-billion-dollar equipment upgrade. No doubt, networks eventually depreciate and need replacing, but they are more software-based than ever. Nokia’s latest 5G software runs on cards that can be slotted into common-off-the-shelf servers, allowing customers to upgrade networks without swapping hardware as often as they previously did.

To sum it, Michael Irizarry’s, chief technology officer of Engineering and Information Services at UScellular, the fourth largest wireless carrier in the US comment at the Next Generation Mobile Network Alliance (NGMN) press conference at MWC Barcelona 2023, perhaps tells all. “You’re probably wondering why we’re talking about 6G when we’ve not extracted all the value out of 5G. I get that question from my boss all the time, so I’m going to tell you three things: we don’t know what it is; we don’t know how much it’s going to cost; and we don’t know yet what problems it’s solving.”