CSPs

Upcoming general elections may hurt Vi’s already declining revenue even more

June 15, 2023

The rising competitive intensity in the Indian telecommunication sector coupled with the upcoming state and general elections may lead to delays in tariff hikes, leading to accelerated shifts in market share, according to brokerages.

Analysts expect gains for Bharti Airtel Ltd. and Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. to be at the expense of Vodafone Idea Ltd. Revenue growth in financial year 2023 was driven mainly by a modest uptick in the average revenue per user during the fiscal.

Jio and Airtel have seen the highest revenue growth of approximately 18% and 17%, respectively. Nearly 60% of Jio’s gains in market share came from urban A circles, while Airtel’s gains have mainly come from rural markets in B and C circles. Vi’s revenue largely remained flat as it continued to lose market share to an extent of approximately 1.2% year-on-year.

Brokerages On Telecom Sector
Kotak Institutional Equities

Industry revenue growth slowed to 9% year-on-year to Rs 569 billion in March versus a growth of 15% year-on-year in the December quarter.
Competitive intensity to attract higher-value subscribers and several key state/general elections over the next 12 months would likely delay tariff hike to June 2024.
Airtel and Jio’s revenue doubled since September 2019, but Vi continued to lose market share, with a largely flat revenue.
Vi recovered some lost ground in the metros.
Jio has the highest growth in the market share with a 1.26% increase YoY, while Vi lost the most with a 1.15% decline year-on-year.
Jio narrowly edged Airtel in revenue growth for financial year 2023.

Bloomberg