TSMC and Samsung face tech hurdles amid chip shortage

The two-year global semiconductor shortage is threatening to spread to some of the most advanced chips needed for next-generation smartphones and the data centers that power apps.

Chips with the tiniest transistors and highest performance had largely escaped the drought that has hit the auto industry and other electronics. Now, problems ranging from production hitches to a shortage of manufacturing equipment have raised concerns over the ability of the world’s two highest-end chip manufacturers to meet delivery promises to customers.

The challenges could ripple through the electronics supply chain as soon as next year, with one analyst warning of shortfalls as high as 20% for the most advanced chips by 2024 and beyond. Without improved chips, technologies such as high-performance computing, artificial intelligence and more evolved forms of autonomous driving might see a slowdown in deployment, industry analysts say.

Part of the problem is that just two companies—Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung Electronics Co.—are capable of building the industry’s most cutting-edge chips because of the high costs and technical barriers. Both have ambitious road maps in the coming months.

Some of TSMC’s customers, however, received warnings that the company might not be able to increase production next year and in 2024 as quickly as hoped because of issues with acquiring manufacturing equipment, according to a person familiar with the situation. The company is making efforts to head off trouble, the person said.

Chip-manufacturing equipment is increasingly arriving later than expected, and lead times on new orders have stretched to in some cases two or three years, largely due to a dearth of less-advanced chips.

Then there are the technical issues. The contract-manufacturing unit of Samsung, the world’s second-largest contract chip maker, has experienced some capacity constraints. The Suwon, South Korea-based company saw slower-than-expected improvements in yields of chips made using the 4-nanometer process—the measurement used in the semiconductor world that loosely refers to the size of the transistors used in production.

Due to the low yields, Samsung was unable to supply as many chips as promised this year, prompting key customers including Qualcomm Inc. and Nvidia Corp. to place orders for their next-generation products with rival TSMC instead, people familiar with the matter said.

One nanometer, or one-billionth of a meter, is about a hundred-thousandth of the width of a strand of hair. The smaller the transistor, the newer and more advanced the chip, and the greater the number of chips that can be made on a single silicon wafer.

Both TSMC and Samsung say they are making progress on efforts to avoid any disruption.

Asked about TSMC’s production of its latest 3-nanometer chips in a call with analysts in April, Chief Executive C.C. Wei said that the company had issues with manufacturing-tool deliveries that it was working through.

“We’re working on 2023 right now, and we hope that we won’t have any big issue,” he said.

Samsung experienced delays in ramping up yields of its 4-nm processes, but the company is now “back on the expected yield improvement curve,” Kang Moon-soo, executive vice president of Samsung’s foundry business, said in a call with analysts last month. Samsung has said that it is on schedule to start mass production of the world’s first 3-nm chips using a novel transistor architecture by this month.

Any market concerns regarding the foundry business are excessive and unfounded, Mr. Kang said during the call.

Qualcomm has for years had a strategy of sourcing its chips from multiple manufacturers, and Samsung and TSMC are both important partners, a company spokeswoman said. Nvidia declined to comment.

Much of the equipment TSMC needs is also used for manufacturing older-style chips and has been in high demand, including from China. Some chip makers want equipment manufacturers to de-prioritize Chinese customers to more quickly meet their needs, according to people familiar with the matter, although equipment makers have pushed back against that effort.

TSMC sent executives to negotiate with equipment manufacturers to fend off any future impact to its growth plans, according to people familiar with the matter. Earlier this year, the company had discussions about obtaining more equipment from ASML Holding NV, one of the people said. ASML makes a range of crucial machinery for manufacturing the most advanced chips.

An ASML spokesman said demand for the company’s systems currently outstrips its ability to fulfill orders, which it is trying to address by helping customers get more output from existing tooling and other measures.

There is a mismatch in the amount of money advanced chip companies hope to spend expanding their production and the projected sales of the manufacturing-equipment industry. Chip equipment, which comprises most of the cost of setting up new chip factories, is expected to generate around $107 billion of sales globally this year, according to industry group SEMI. But planned capital expenditures by chip makers is projected to be more than that, at $180 billion, according to chip consulting firm International Business Strategies Inc.

The impact of high demand and equipment shortages on even more advanced 3-nanometer and 2-nanometer production will be significant, said Handel Jones, chief executive of IBS. He estimates a potential 10% to 20% supply shortage in that area in 2024 and 2025.

Chip-design companies that depend on contract chip makers have warned of technology and manufacturing-related risks that could affect their business down the road. Qualcomm said in its recent quarterly filing that developing or maintaining leading process technologies, including transitions to smaller geometries, could bring down manufacturing yields and reliability.

“Certain of our suppliers have in the past attempted, and may in the future attempt, to unilaterally reduce their capacity commitments to us,” Qualcomm said in its latest quarterly filing.

Jensen Huang, the chief executive of Nvidia Corp., the U.S.’s largest chip maker by market capitalization, said the supply chain would continue to be complicated and constrained, but his company had paid for longer-term commitments from its leading-edge suppliers.

“An agreement is an agreement, and we’re fairly confident with ours,” he said.

U.S.-based Intel Corp. aims to build a business making chips for others, but those plans are still at an early stage, and Intel can’t yet serve as an alternative to Samsung and TSMC. Seeking Alpha