RJio’s active subs net add strong despite tariff hike, ICICI Securities

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its monthly data on subscribers (subs) for Jan’22. Industry-active sub base grew 5.9 MoM with Bharti Airtel’s (Bharti) net add at 1.3mn. The positive surprise was Reliance Jio (RJio) with active subs net add of 4.2mn despite total sub-base dip of 9.4mn in Jan’22. Unlike previous, RJio subs net add is not impacted from SIM consolidation from Dec’21 tariff hike. VIL saw active sub decline by 0.7mn. Industry-wide mobile broadband (MBB) subs dipped 8.9mn due to sub-base clean-up by RJio and Bharti’s slight rise of 0.5mn. Bharti’s MBB sub market share dipped 11bps to 28.8% on active basis, while RJio’s rose 25bps to 51.3%. MNP rose to 9.5mn with churn rate at 0.8% (vs 0.7% in Dec’21). Wired broadband sub add was stable for RJio at 0.26mn and for Bharti at 0.13mn.

Industry-active sub-base rose 5.9mn

• Industry-active sub base rose 5.9mn to 1,007mn (0.6% MoM, 2.8% YoY), and was likely impacted from tariff hike in prepaid category by 20-25%, and lower smartphone sales.
• RJio’s active sub base grew 4.2mn (average 4mn in past six months) to 369mn in Jan’22, which looks stronger than expected. This was unlike Dec’19, when operators took tariff hike in prepaid category and RJio’s active subs was hurt. Total subs dipped 9.3mn while VLR ratio improved to 90.7% (from 87.6% in Dec’21).
• Bharti’s active sub base expanded by 1.3mn to 350mn. Its total sub base increased by 0.7mn, which means existing sub base was stable despite tariff hike.
• VIL’s active subs dipped 0.7mn (2.1mn in Dec’21) to 229mn in Jan’22. Total subs reduced by 0.4mn. VIL’s sub loss was likely lower on subdued industry 4G net adds.
• RJio’s active sub market share improved by 20bps to 36.6% MoM, while Bharti’s stood at 34.8% (down 8bps MoM) and VIL’s fell 20bps MoM to 22.7%. RJio continues to widen its lead in active sub market share.

Industry MBB (mobile broadband) subs dipped 8.9mn

• Industry-wide MBB subs dipped 8.9mn to 756mn in Jan’22 due to sub clean-up by RJio. Bharti’s rose by 0.5mn subs in this category on lower affordable smartphone sales.
• RJio’s MBB sub base dipped by 9.3mn to 406mn. Adjusted for inactive subs, its MBB market share stood at 51.3% (up 25bps MoM), while Bharti’s was 28.8% (down 11bps MoM) and VIL’s 16.9% (down 26bps MoM).
• VIL’s MBB sub base decreased by 1.1mn to 121mn, which is disappointing.

Wired broadband sub net add steady for Bharti / RJio

• Wired broadband sub base was up by 0.22mn MoM to 26.7mn (up 0.8% MoM / 17.6% YoY) in Jan’22. Net add for Bharti was 0.13mn (vs 0.14mn in past six months). Others category grew by 0.02mn subs to 12.5mn.
• RJio’s market share rose to 18.1% (+83bps MoM), and net add stood at 0.26mn (vs 0.23mn in past six months). Bharti’s market share was 16.2% (+36bps MoM). BSNL lost 0.17mn subs and its market share was down 77bps MoM to 14.6%.

Industry MNP churn rate rose slightly by 0.8%

• Industry porting was at 9.5mn in Jan’22. MNP churn rate was 0.8% (vs 0.7% in Dec’21).

For the complete report click here – https://www.communicationstoday.co.in/rjios-active-subs-net-add-strong-despite-tariff-hike-icici-securities/

CT Bureau