China’s chipmaking ambitions drive surging ASML imports

China’s imports of Dutch lithography machines have surged this year, with the first seven months already surpassing ASML Holding’s previous forecast for 2023 sales to China, according to a new report, as Chinese firms stock up on the equipment ahead of new export curbs.

From January to July, Chinese imports of Dutch-made lithography machines, nearly all from chip equipment giant ASML, grew 64.8 per cent year on year to US$2.58 billion, Chinese semiconductor industry consultancy JW Insights said in a report published on Friday, citing China customs data.

In January, ASML projected that its sales to China this year would remain steady at about 2.2 billion euros (US$2.36 billion), or 14 per cent of its total annual revenue.

In July, China imported US$626 million worth of lithography machines from the Netherlands, nearly eight times larger than the same month last year, according to the report.

ASML has a near monopoly on the world’s most advanced lithography machines, which are required for the production of cutting-edge chips. Under US pressure, the company has cut off exports of its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems to China.

The company has until now been able to continue shipments of less advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems to the country, but that is expected to soon change.

Under new rules from the Netherlands that go into effect September 1, ASML will be required to apply for a licence from The Hague to ship its most advanced DUV lithography systems, dealing a fresh blow to China’s semiconductor industry.

As a result, Chinese firms have rushed to stockpile machines so they can continue to fulfil production demands for as long as possible after next month, JW Insights said.

From 2015 to 2022, the eastern province of Jiangsu and the cities of Shanghai and Beijing were China’s biggest importers of Dutch lithography machines, the report noted.

Heavy demand from China helped offset a slump in the global semiconductor industry and boosted ASML’s earnings this year, the company said last month.

While the firm saw a delay in demand for its DUV equipment from some customers, it has been compensated by strong demand for tools used in more mature and mid-critical nodes, particularly in China, ASML CEO Peter Wennink said in an earnings call last month.

“Our Chinese customers say: ‘We are happy to take the machines that others don’t want’, because their fabs are ready and they can take the tools that become available,” Wennink said in a separate video interview released by the company.

The Chinese government earlier this year condemned the US for “coercing” other countries into imposing technological blockades on China and “undermining market rules and international trade”, as well as the stability of the global supply chain.

Chinese media, at the same time, have played up the possibility that the country could deliver its first home-grown lithography machine capable of producing 28-nanometre chips by the end of this year.

Chinese newspaper Securities Daily reported last month that Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment would deliver the machine, called SSA/800-10W, and the news was endorsed by state-run media outlets including Xinhua News Agency. South China Morning Post