72.3mn iPhones expected to be replaced this year

Apple’s near-term catalyst is the users who will need to replace their devices. In the case of the iPhone, the average user sticks to it for 3 years. In the case of Macs, it’s longer since Apple has supported them through updates for around 8 years.

Around 30% of users iPhone purchasers in 2021 said that they replaced their iPhones every 3 years. In 2021, Apple sold 241M iPhones, which means that 72.3M iPhones will be replaced in 2024.

A geopolitical risk that needs consideration is such as what China recently did when it banned iPhones for employees of state-owned enterprises. China is an important market for Apple. However, Apple can survive without it, as other regions, such as Latin America and Southeast Asia, can replace its market.

However, that China does this sets a precedent, which means that in the future, if countries such as India, Indonesia, or European countries get into a trade war with the US, Apple could be affected.

The Beginner Investor, Seeking Alpha analyst since 2023