Voda Idea Q2 preview: Markets eye fund raising plan, revenue guidance

Vodafone Idea is set to announce its September quarter results of FY21 (Q2FY21) on Thursday amid expectations that the company’s losses would narrow on a year-on-year basis, led by rise in average revenue per user (ARPU), and although, subscriber loss is expected to moderate, it would nonetheless keep the revenue growth in check.

According to analysts, Vodafone Idea’s fund raising plans and the ARPU trajectory ahead will be the key monitorables.

At the bourses, Vodafone Idea dipped 12.5 per cent in the quarter under review. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex gained 9 per cent in the same period, ACE Equity data show.

Here’s what leading brokerages expect from Voda Idea’s Q2FY21 numbers:

Emkay
According to Emkay, a low base of the last quarter along with moderation in subscriber loss shall lead to a marginal rise in Vodafone Idea’s wireless revenues. Subscriber loss is expected to narrow, meaningfully, at 30 lakh vs the quarterly average of 1 crore in the last four quarters. Accompanied by the dip in Q1 and a 40 lakh increase in data subscribers in Q2, average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to rise 4 per cent.

Overall, among the headline numbers, Voda Idea may report a 0.5 per cent YoY dip in net sales at Rs 10,788.6 crore, although the same will be up 1.2 per cent, sequentially. Net loss is also expected to contract to Rs 5,941.3 crore from Rs 20,147.3 crore recorded in the year-ago quarter. The company had posted a loss of Rs 5,537.1 crore in Q1FY21.

“Data volume shall remain at elevated levels, by rising 7.5 per cent sequentially. Ebitda margins shall contract 204bps QoQ due to higher operating expense, primarily on account of an increase in marketing spends, which we believe is due to its rebranding effort.” the brokerage said.

ICICI Securities
ICICI Securities expects the churn for Vodafone Idea to continue, although it also expects reverse migration of labourers to cities to alleviate that churn. Consequently, the brokerage bakes in around 30 lakh customer exits sequentially, much lower than average churn of around 1 crore seen in the last four quarters. The brokerage is expecting ARPU growth of around 3 per cent QoQ at Rs 117, aided by higher data based usage upgrades.

“We expect overall revenues to grow 0.9 per cent QoQ at Rs 10,753 crore while net loss may come in at Rs 5,892 crore. Reported margins are expected at 36.4 per cent, down 200 bps QoQ as Q1 had one-off benefits of Rs 300 crore in licence fee and network & IT cost. Ebitda is seen growing 16.9 per cent YoY to Rs 3,914 crore,” the brokerage said.

Kotak Institutional Equities
According to the analysts at Kotak Institutional Equities, Vodafone Idea’s Q2 revenue may increase 0.4 per cent YoY to Rs 10,884.2 crore while net loss is seen contracting to Rs 3,706.8 crore. It sees the company’s ARPU increasing to Rs 119 from Rs 107 in the year-ago quarter. Business Standard