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Telecom: Subscriber watch: Active subs dipped across operators

June 17, 2022

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its monthly data on subscribers (subs) for Apr’22. Industry-active sub base dipped 7.8mn MoM with Bharti Airtel’s (Bharti) down by 3.1mn, which is among the worst performance in the past 12 months. Reliance Jio (RJio) gross subs decline stopped (cleaning up done!), and it returned to net add of 1.7mn in April’22; however, its active subs dipped 0.1mn. VIL saw active sub dipped 3.8mn, after net add in Mar’22. Industry-wide mobile broadband (MBB) subs remained the same with end of RJio subs decline. However, active 4G subs dip was probably impacted by higher 4G tariffs and rise in entry level smartphone prices. This will decelerate the benefit of premiumisation on ARPUs. Bharti’s MBB sub market share rose 3bps to 28.7% on active basis, while RJio’s rose 12bps to 51.7%. MNP dipped to 7.8mn with churn rate at 0.7% (vs 0.8% in Mar’22). Wired broadband sub add was strong for RJio at 0.35mn and for Bharti at 0.32mn.

Industry-active sub base dipped 7.8mn

Industry-active sub base dipped 7.8mn to 1,014mn (down 0.8% MoM and up 1.6% YoY). The decline was seen for all the three operators.
RJio’s active sub base dipped 0.1mn (average +3.9mn in past six month) to 379mn in Apr’22. Total subs rose 1.7mn, while it has dipped an average 3.5mn in the past six months, which means the company has largely completed cleaning up of subs base.
Bharti’s active sub base dipped 3.1mn (average +1.5mn in past six months) to 353mn. Its total sub base increased 0.8mn.
VIL’s active subs dipped 3.8mn (average down 1.6mn in the past six months) to 222mn in Apr’22. Total subs reduced by 1.6mn.
RJio’s active sub market share rose by 28bps to 37.4% MoM, while Bharti’s stood at 34.8% (down 4bps MoM) and VIL’s fell 20bps MoM to 22.9%. RJio continues to lead in active sub market share.

Industry MBB (mobile broadband) subs were flattish

Industry-wide MBB subs stood at 760mn in Apr’22 (flattish MoM), which reflects slowing 4G subs probably from higher tariffs for services and rising entry-level smartphones. Bharti’s MBB subs base dipped 0.3mn to 210mn in this category which should show the benefit of premiumisation on ARPU.
RJio’s MBB sub base rose 1.7mn to 406mn. Adjusted for inactive subs, its MBB market share stood at 51.7% (up 12bps MoM), while Bharti’s was 28.7% (up 3bps MoM) and VIL’s was 16.7% (flattish MoM).
VIL’s MBB sub base dipped 0.4mn to 122mn.

Wired broadband sub net add strong for Bharti

Wired broadband sub base rose 2.1% MoM to 27.8mn (up 24.1% YoY) in Apr’22. Net add for Bharti was 0.32mn (vs 0.11mn in past six month), and RJio was 0.35mn (vs 0.22mn in the past six months). Others dipped by 0.04mn subs to 12.4mn.
RJio’s market share rose to 20.2% (+85bps MoM), and Bharti’s was at 17.4% (up 80bps MoM). BSNL dipped by 0.05mn subs and its market share was down 47bps MoM to 13.7%.

Industry MNP churn rate slightly lower at 0.7%