Strong performance by Reliance Jio, Airtel to buoy industry growth for FY21

The Indian telecom industry’s mobile segment is expected to log EBITDA growth of at least 40 percent in the current fiscal year, higher than 25 percent in 2019-20, helped by strong showing so far by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, according to Fitch Ratings.

EBITDA or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization is a measure of a firm’s broad financial performance.

Among other highlights, Fitch expects industry monthly ARPU (average realisation per user) to grow by 5-10 percent in 2021-22 as 2G and 3G customers gradually upgrade to pricier 4G plans.

It said another tariff hike “is possible” in 2021 given that struggling Vodafone Idea — whose ARPU is 30 percent lower than Bharti’s — may raise tariffs to improve cash flows.

Fitch said Bharti and Jio are likely to bid to renew their expiring spectrum in the upcoming auctions in March 2021 and may also bid to acquire spectrum in the sub-1GHz band, which can be used for 5G services.

“We have assumed Bharti will set aside $500 million in FY21 and $1 billion in FY22 for upfront spectrum investments. We believe that the company is unlikely to launch 5G services before 2022,” Fitch said.

It is pertinent to mention here that the government has already set the ball rolling for the spectrum auction, in which radiowaves valued at ₹3.92 lakh crore will be put on the block.

The auction in seven spectrum bands for mobile services – 700, 800, 900, 1800, 2100, 2300 and 2500MHz bands – is scheduled to start from March 1.

Airtel has in fact made it clear that it is keen on a “full footprint” of sub-GHz radiowaves across the country to boost coverage indoors and in rural areas, as it pursues an optimised spectrum strategy that balances renewal and capacity needs.

Fitch Ratings expects Indian telecom industry’s mobile segment EBITDA to increase by at least 40 percent in 2020-21, compared with 25 percent in the previous financial year. This is on account of “strong performances” by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel in nine months of the current fiscal year.

“EBITDA growth at Jio and Bharti will be driven by higher tariffs, user migration to 4G and high monthly data usage of 12GB-16GB per user as pandemic-led restrictions encouraged users to work from home and use remote-access technologies,” it said.

The pandemic-led economic slowdown has had little impact on Indian telcos, as data traffic continues to increase even after the lockdowns were lifted.

Jio’s revenue and EBITDA grew by 33 percent and 50 percent, respectively, year-on-year in nine months of 2020-21, while Bharti posted Indian mobile revenue and EBITDA growth of 26 percent and 48 percent, respectively, in the same period.

“Jio , which leads the mobile market with 411 million customers, added 41 million subscribers during last four quarters and increased its monthly ARPU by 18 percent year-on-year to ₹151. Bharti gained 25 million customers to reach a total subscriber base of 308 million, higher than our expectations, and reported a 23 percent year- on-year rise in monthly ARPU to ₹166…,” it said.

Fitch sees Jio and Bharti increasing their combined revenue market share to 80 percent at the expense of third-placed Vodafone Idea, which is expected to lose 50-70 million subscribers in the next 12 months.

“Sector capex is likely to remain flat in FY22, barring spectrum payments, as both Bharti and Jio front-loaded investments to expand 4G coverage and capacity and built up fibre networks and in-building coverage,” it said. PTI