European ICT spending is expected to shrink by 1.7% in 2022 due to the Russia-Ukraine War and other factors, according to International Data Corporation (IDC).
A new update to IDC’s Worldwide Black Book Live Edition reports that European ICT spending is expected to slow to 2.0% growth in constant currency terms, reaching $1,052.01 billion. This is compared to a pre-war growth forecast of 3.7%.
In addition to the war in Ukraine, spending will be slowed by the spike in energy prices and rising inflation due to ongoing supply chain disruptions, according to IDC.
The Russian and Ukrainian markets will see particularly strong contractions. The Russian market will be impacted by currency fluctuations as well as international sanctions imposed over Moscow’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine.
In the event of a short war, IDC projects that the ICT market in Europe will see a recovery in 2023, posting a year-on-year spending increase of up to 4.7%.
In this uncertain environment, OPEX will continue to be a driving force, with organizations pushing forward with the shift from on-prem to cloud deployments.
espite the slowdown in spending, IDC expects most European technology markets to remain relatively robust in 2022.
The exception is most device markets, including PCs and mobile phones, which are together expected to decline by 6.1% year on year. Many organizations decide to reduce capital spending during times of economic and business uncertainty.
“Sooner or later, the ICT market will find a way to stabilize,” said Ivana Slaharova, senior research manager for IDC Customer Insights & Analysis. “Most likely, it will be a supply chain global redirection. Organizations will boost their self-sufficiency and diversify their portfolios of partners.”
Semiconductor shortages will continue to impact the European infrastructure (server/storage) market in 2022. However, this market is expected to remain relatively stable as companies continue to modernize infrastructure as part of digital transformation initiatives.
Overall software spending in Europe is also expected to remain relatively stable in both the short and long term. Demand will focus mainly on security, data protection, and supply chain management.
Services markets are expected to contract somewhat in 2022 but will remain growth drivers as companies pursue projects requiring consulting and support services.
IDC expects the European security appliance market to stay relatively stable in 2022 and possibly accelerate in 2023.
“A cyberwar escalation would drive governments and large enterprises to improve their security postures by investing in cybersecurity and the protection of datacenters,” said Lubomir Dimitrov, senior research analyst for IDC Customer Insights & Analysis. “The acceleration of migrations to cloud will indirectly trigger security hardware adoption by services providers and telecom operators.”