For many through the continent this will be seen as progress, as the European Commission has previously viewed reducing the number of MNOs in a single market below four as sacrilege. With telcos across Europe looking for ways to justify the vast expenditures expected for 5G and the full-fibre diets demanding by governments in the fixed space, the prospect of market consolidation is an interesting one.
What is worth noting is this is a relatively minor acquisition. Merging DT’s Dutch business and Tele2’s only adds a relatively small increment, roughly 5%, to the newly merged business. T-Mobile NL would still remain in third position with a market share of 25%, while the European Commission has also questioned Tele2 NL’s role as an important competitive force in the Dutch market. Despite these conditions, this will certainly be viewed as progress for those who sit in the pro-consolidation camp.
“Access to affordable and good quality mobile telecom services is essential in a modern society,” said Commissioner Margrethe Vestager. “After thoroughly analysing the specific role of T-Mobile NL and the smaller Tele2 NL in the Dutch retail mobile market, our investigation found that the proposed acquisition would not significantly change the prices or quality of mobile services for Dutch consumers.”
Through the five month investigation, Vestager and her team decided the proposed merger was unlikely to lead to significant price increases due to the limited incremental impact Tele2 would have on the T-Mobile NL business, the transaction would not increase the likelihood of coordinated behaviour between mobile network operators as there is sufficient enough difference between and the business models, and finally, conditions for virtual mobile network operators due to the proposed merger would not have a serious impact on the level of competition. In short, dropping from four to three operators would not negatively impact the consumer.
Here is the question though; will this decision have any material impact on consolidation decisions elsewhere? Perhaps it might, but we suspect the European Commission will stick to the three operator rule where competition is more intense.
In listing its reasons for approving the deal, Vestager effectively said that Tele2’s Dutch business was small and irrelevant enough to the other players that it being swallowed up by one of them would not make any material impact on competition. In most other markets around Europe the fourth players have much more of a foothold in the market.
Take the UK for instance. Here, Three is the smallest of the MNOs, controlling roughly a 15% market share. On its own it can provide suitable competition to the three larger players, though if it was acquired the gain in total subscribers would have a material impact on market share. This alteration in the status quo could lead to the anti-competition doomsday scenario, or at least this is what the European Commission might believe.
Despite consolidation being a positive for the industry, scale means confidence to invest, operational efficiencies, notable procurement benefits and greater ability to generate ROI, we suspect the European Commission will stick to its four operator rule for most markets. The only exceptions will be in cases like this one, where the fourth player controls a minor market share which would have no material impact on a competitors standing in the market.
That said, this is a step forward for the stubborn European Commission. – Telecoms