Indian telecom sector headed for duopoly, Jefferies

Vodafone Idea Ltd. may lose subscribers at an accelerated pace due to the launch of Jio Bharat, leading to a faster shift in the market share of the telecom sector, according to Jefferies Financial Group Inc.

In May, the sector’s active subscriber base rose by 50 lakh, led by Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. (49 lakh) and Bharti Airtel Ltd. (24 lakh). Vi’s active subscriber losses rose to six-month high of 18 lakh, according to data from the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India

The recent launch of Jio Bharat has increased competition as the company targets 25-crore low-cost 2G users from rivals Airtel and Vi.

Vi’s subscriber losses may accelerate due to the Jio Bharat launch, which “will turn the market into an effective duopoly sooner than expected”, Jefferies said in a note on Tuesday.

The limited recovery in Vi’s 3G/4G subscriber base in May despite a sharp fall in April suggests a permanent loss of 4G subscribers. It could lead to an accelerated market-share shift and turn the market into an effective duopoly sooner than expected, according to the brokerage. Bloomberg