Increase in Open Ran installs, satcom SAM potential

The COVID-19 pandemic quickened the pace of digital transformation, placing technologies at the very center of how people live and work–and that pace shows no signs of slowing down. ABI Research has identified and highlighted the most impactful forecasts that illuminate the direction in which digital transformation is truly heading.

“From among the many millions of data points ABI Research creates each year, we have focused on the most enlightening stats that will matter most in the years ahead. The rise of always-on 5G portable devices, an explosion of edge AI adoption, a proliferation of smart manufacturing platforms, the formation of the metaverse, and a growing concentration on cybersecurity are just some of the many changes on the horizon that are indicative of a more connected, more vulnerable, and ultimately, more technology-driven world,” Stuart Carlaw, Chief Research Officer at ABI Research explains.

Important 5G and Mobile Network Infrastructure stats highlighted:

Open RAN installs will increase from 1.37 million in 2021 to 22.52 million in 2026.
“Open RAN revenue will not match traditional RAN revenue but will slowly increase throughout the forecast period. Due to integration and technology developments issues, considerable vendor resistance may entirely delay or even kill the Open RAN movement before it reaches a large scale. The industry has now become aware of the fact that Open RAN will still need years of development before it can match large vendor performance and cost efficiency,” says Dimitris Mavrakis, Senior Research Director at ABI Research. This has translated to reduced interest in Open RAN in early 2022.

ABI Research expects that Open RAN to morph into the next generation RAN concept, driven mainly by large infrastructure vendors that will be more open in terms of interfacing with other vendors and will include open elements in their proprietary platforms. Ericsson, Huawei, and Nokia, among others, will adapt to Open RAN.

The satellite communications Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM) potential for Asia-Pacific will increase from 161.5 million premises in 2021 to 169.0 million premises in 2026.
According to Jun Wei Ee, Research Analyst at ABI Research, “The Asia-Pacific market has contrasting high broadband penetrated markets, such as Japan, South Korea, China, and countries, such as India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, where high-speed broadband has yet to gain significant penetration. Many rural communities in the region continue to see significant population growth over the forecast period. Fiber-optic and Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) continue to be rolled out, but face challenges in addressing the rural markets.” The SAM potential consists of possible community satellite broadband access deployment opportunities, as well as a smaller number of direct-to-home deployments to households that have the disposable income to afford satellite broadband solutions. In the lower-income areas, service providers may need to amortize the cost of the Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) across the duration of the service contract, or government agencies may need to proactively subsidize the cost of the CPE to make the service more affordable.

“While there are still fundamental challenges ahead–political tumult, an entrenched endemic, and a broken supply chain–these statistics should provide insights and actionable data needed to chart a successful course in 2022 and beyond,” Carlaw concludes.

CT Bureau