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Challenging Open RAN conditions not impacting long-term forecast

According to a recently published report by Dell’Oro Group, the trusted source for market information about the telecommunications, security, networks, and data center industries, following an impressive ascent between 2019 and 2022, Open RAN revenues are on track to decline in 2023. Market conditions will remain challenging over the near-term but the long-term forecast remains positive, with Open RAN set to account for 20 percent to 30 percent of worldwide RAN revenues by 2028, up from 7 percent to 10 percent in 2024.

“Current growth deceleration combined with the increased acceptance that Open RAN is not some kind of magic solution that will significantly alter barriers to entry or overall market concentration, is prompting more questions about the rationale behind Open RAN,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and Analyst at the Dell’Oro Group. “The fundamental assumptions shaping the role Open RAN will play in this RAN journey have not changed. Over time, operators will incorporate more virtualization, intelligence, automation, and O-RAN into their RAN roadmaps. However, the business case for multi-vendor RAN is less compelling,” continued Pongratz.

Additional highlights from the February 2024 Open RAN Report:

  • Open RAN revenues have been revised upward in the outer part of the forecast period to reflect the improved pipeline in the US.
  • North America stumbled in 2023 but is set to lead the Open RAN market over the forecast period.
  • After a slow start, Europe’s Open RAN revenue share is projected to nearly double between 2023 and 2028.
  • The mix between multi- and single-vendor RAN remains mostly unchanged. The analysis in the report shows that single-vendor Open RAN is expected to drive the lion’s share of the Open RAN market. Multi-vendor Open RAN is projected to account for 5 percent to 10 percent of total RAN revenues by 2028.

Dell’Oro

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