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Active subscriber base shrinks across operators, ICICI Securities

September 16, 2022

The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its data on subscribers (subs) for Jul’22. Industry-wide active sub-base dipped by 4.3mn MoM (vs dip of 0.2mn in Jun’22 and +2.8mn in past six months) with Bharti Airtel (Bharti) losing 1.0mn subs (vs net add of 2.3mn in Jun’22 and +1.4mn in past six months). Reliance Jio’s (RJio) active subs fell by 1.0mn in Jul’22 (vs +3.1mn in past six months). VIL saw its active subs decline by 1.7mn, thus posing a key concern. Industry-wide mobile broadband (MBB) sub net add improved to 5.7mn (vs increase of 5.6mn in Jun’22). Bharti’s MBB subs rose 2.6mn and its market share expanded to 29.2% (up 28bps MoM) on active basis, while RJio’s dipped 26bps to 51.4%. VIL’s MBB has been constant for past three months. MNP increased to 10.2mn with the churn rate at 0.9% (vs 0.8% in Jun’22). Wired broadband sub net add slightly rose for Bharti at 0.14mn, while it dipped for RJio at 0.11mn (vs +0.27mn average in past six months).

Industry-wide active sub-base fell by 4.3mn MoM in Jul’22

Industry-wide active sub-base dipped by 4.3mn to 1,013mn (down 0.4% MoM, up 2.4% YoY).
RJio’s active sub-base saw a reduction of 1.0mn (average +3.1mn in past six months) to 382mn in Jul’22. Total subs rose by 2.9mn to 416mn, and active subs as a percentage of total subs dipped to 92%, down 91bps MoM.
Bharti’s active sub-base contracted by 1.0mn (vs +1.4mn in past six months) to 356mn. Its total sub-base increased by 0.5mn.
VIL’s active subs dipped 1.7mn (down by an average of 1.8mn per month in the past six months) to 217mn in Jul’22. Total subs reduced by 1.5mn.
RJio’s active sub market share rose 6bps MoM to 37.7%; Bharti’s stood at 35.2% (up 5bps MoM) while VIL’s fell 8bps MoM to 21.4%.

Industry-wide MBB (mobile broadband) subs rose by 5.7mn

Industry-wide MBB subs stood at 777mn, up 5.7mn, in Jul’22 (up 0.7% MoM / down 0.8% YoY). This has been steady for past three months, but lower than historical adds.
Bharti’s MBB sub-base grew by 2.6mn to 217mn, which should slow the benefit of premiumisation on ARPU. However, the net add is best in past 10 months.
RJio’s MBB sub-base rose by 2.9mn to 416mn. Adjusted for inactive subs, its MBB market share stood at 51.4% (down 26bps MoM). Bharti’s MBB market share was 29.2% (up 28bps MoM) and VIL’s was 16.5% (down 3bps MoM).
VIL’s MBB sub-base remained constant at 123mn, flattish for past three quarters.

Wired broadband sub net add steady for Bharti while it slowed for RJio

Wired broadband sub-base rose by 0.76mn MoM to 29.5mn (up 2.6% MoM / 22.7% YoY) in Jul’22. Bharti added 0.14mn subs (vs 0.11mn per month in past six months), and RJio added 0.11mn (vs 0.27mn per month in past six months). Other subs rose 0.48mn to 13.2mn for other operators.
RJio’s market share rose to 21.3% (down 18bps MoM) and that for Bharti increased by 16.9% (up 4bps MoM). BSNL’s sub-base expanded by 0.01mn while its market share fell 31bps MoM to 13.1%.

Industry-wide MNP churn inched up to 0.9%